Climate change in Ghana

Climate change in Ghana is impacting the people in Ghana in several ways as the country sits at the intersection of three hydro-climatic zones. Changes in rainfall, weather conditions and sea-level rise will affect the salinity of coastal waters. This is expected to negatively affect both farming and fisheries.

The national economy stands to suffer from the impacts of climate change because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, and forestry. Moreover, access to freshwater is expected to become more challenging while reduced water supply will have a negative impact on hydropower, which provides 54% of the country's electricity capacity. Additionally, Ghana will likely see more cases of malaria and cholera since changes in water conditions impact both.

In 2015, the government produced a document titled "Ghana's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution". Following that, Ghana signed the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution after 2016 became the Nationally Determined Contributions commonly referred to as NDCs, which was reviewed in 2021.

A 2023 report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service noted that Ghana "is vulnerable to rising sea levels, droughts, increasing temperatures, and erratic rainfall which adversely impacts infrastructure, hydropower production, food security, and coastal and agricultural livelihoods".

Greenhouse gas emissions

In 2021, Ghana's total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector reached 21.397 million tonnes, highlighting a significant increase of 332% in per-capita emissions since 2000. Despite representing only 0.1% of global emissions from combustible fuels, this rise is concerning, particularly in international efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. West Africa is among the smallest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, but the nations "are already feeling the effects of the climate crisis disproportionately".

The primary source of these emissions in Ghana was oil burning, which accounted for 66% of the total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Sector-wise, transportation emerged as the largest contributor, responsible for 47% of the nation's energy-related CO2 emissions, followed by electricity and heat production at 34%. These figures underscore the urgent need for Ghana to transition towards more sustainable energy sources and improve the efficiency of its transportation and power sectors.

Fossil fuel production

The Jubilee offshore oil field began production in 2010, raising expectations for wealth creation in Ghana. However, the infrastructure needed to support Ghana's oil industry (storage, shipping, processing) has necessitated the practice of flaring. "Long-term gas flaring at the Jubilee Field may be inevitable" without accelerated development of infrastructure and would produce about 1.5 million tons of CO₂ annually (7 percent of Ghana's total national emissions).

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

Lake Volta, the largest artificial lake by surface area in the world, changed climate patterns in Ghana.

The drier northern areas have warmed more rapidly than southern Ghana. Overall, Ghana has experienced a 1.0 °C increase in temperature since 1960. Northern Ghana has only one rainy season, while southern Ghana has two, and annual rainfall is highly variable. Long-term trends for rainfall are challenging to predict. However, USDA's Forest Service concluded in 2011 that there was "no evidence that extreme rain events have either increased or decreased since 1960."

However, when one compares the Köppen-Geiger climate classification map for 1980–2016 and the projected map for 2071–2100 predicted change in classification from "tropical, savannah" to "arid, steppe, hot" in some coastal areas."

Sea level rise

Available data also shows a sea level rise of 2.1 mm per year over the last 30 years, indicating a surge of 5.8 cm, 16.5 cm, and 34.5 cm by 2020, 2050, and 2080. Flooding affects approximately "45,000 Ghanaians every year, and half of Ghana's coastline is vulnerable to erosion and flooding as a result of sea-level rise".

Water resources

Expected decreases in water in the primary river basins providing fresh water for the country, Volta River, Bia River, and Tano River, could increase challenges in getting access to clean drinking water. The volume of water in the Volta Basin was predicted to have a 24% and 45% reduction in 2050 and 2100, respectively. The continuous decrease in precipitation and increasing evaporation rate has the potential to cause political tension in the region as Burkina Faso plans to draw water from the Volta Basin.

Impacts on people

Economic impacts

Agriculture

Forty-five percent of the workforce in Ghana depends on small-holder rain-fed agriculture. Disruption due to erratic rainfall and other extreme weather will harm people's economic well-being. Moreover, staple crops such as Cassava, Maize, and cocoa (the major cash crop of Ghana) are expected to see decreased production. Based on a 20-year baseline climate observation, it is forecasted that maize and other cereal crop yields will reduce by 7% by 2050.

Moreover, the combination of deforestation and new dams that dried up rivers has affected agriculture and, in turn, brought migration to Accra, which increased poor-quality unplanned settlements in the path of potential flash floods.

A 2024 World Bank report estimates that about two million Ghanaians are vulnerable to food insecurity. Should any natural disaster occur, food availability will be significantly affected, particularly in the Northern region and the country's rural areas.

Fisheries

Seafood makes up 40–60 percent of protein intake in Ghana. Key species for the economy are expected to have worse reproduction cycles . Reduction in fisheries production has stimulated importation of more $200million per year worth of seafood.

Hydropower

Because 54% of the national generation capacity is hydropower, unpredictable rainfall is likely to add uncertainty to a power grid already experiencing frequent outages (known as dumsor). Some estimates suggest that capacity could fall by as much as 50% for the Volta Basin. Ghana experienced a reduction in GDP between 2012 and 2015 in partial response to a deficient supply of power.

Health impacts

An increase in waterborne diseases such as cholera and mosquito-borne diseases like malaria is projected. According to the World Bank, Ghana's health system is highly vulnerable to the changes climate, "especially to iillnesseslike malaria and diarrhea disease ... health issues related to heat, air pollution, and infectious diseases are on the rise with the elderly, youth, and children being particularly vulnerable".

Mitigation and adaptation

Ghana signed the Paris Agreement on 22 April 2016 and ratified it on 21 September 2016. The first national climate change adaptation strategy in Ghana was developed to be implemented between 2010 and 2020. Adaptation seeks to lower the risks posed by the consequences of climate change. Adaptation measures may be planned or put in place spontaneously in response to local pressure, such as afforestation, land rotation, building climate-resilient structures, solar-powered infrastructure, etc. The Ministry of Environment Science, Technology and Innovation published a policy framework in 2013.

In 2015, Ghana developed a framework entitled "Ghana's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution" to outline a plan to reduce carbon emissions and to improve eternity of land use, transportation, and other economic and societal sectors. This plan, after the Paris Agreement in 2016, became the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

Ghana is experiencing population growth, has a high poverty rate, and its economy is dependent on vulnerable industries like agriculture. Thus, it is a West African country with increased risk of climate vulnerability, including droughts and floods, hunger and disease, that increase human suffering, violence, displacement, and economic collapse in the region.

Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo, the President of Ghana stated, "Our hope depends on the actions we take today." However, Ghana still needs to develop long-term contingency plans for climate change because decision-makers and local managers have an inadequate perception of the costs of dealing with such crises. A 2022 report by the World Bank report noted that Ghana has slowed progress in its economic development and has not fully converted its natural wealth into sufficient infrastructure, human, and institutional capital for sustained growth, but taking a climate resilient and low-carbon pathway could turn challenges into opportunities. With appropriate reforms and investments, it will be possible for Ghana to "deliver large economic and social benefits for its people".

Adaptation

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