Potential re-accession of the United Kingdom to the European Union

Following a 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom exited from the European Union at the end of January 2020. Since leaving the EU, numerous polling organisations have conducted surveys to gauge public opinion on rejoining the organisation. The trend of the poll data shows that, over time, support for Brexit has waned, while public opinion in the UK has gradually moved in favour of rejoining the EU (either totally, or partially, such as joining the European single market).

History

A referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union took place in 2016, following the European Union Referendum Act being approved by parliament the previous year. Most political parties, including Labour and the Liberal Democrats, supported remaining in the European Union while the governing Conservative Party remained neutral, with the prime minister, David Cameron, supporting the UK remaining in the European Union. A majority of voters supported the UK leaving the European Union, with 51.9% voting in favour of leaving and 48.1% in favour of remaining. Cameron resigned, and was succeeded by Theresa May and, later, Boris Johnson, both of whom negotiated the terms of the UK's departure. The UK's departure from the European Union led to two early general elections in 2017 and 2019, and dominated British politics until 31 January 2020, when the country's membership of the European Union ended.

In September 2023, thousands of people participated in a march in London campaigning for the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU. Also in September 2023, France and Germany proposed a restructuring of the membership of the EU to allow the UK to rejoin as an associate member, rather than a full member. Associate membership would include membership of the European single market but not the EU customs union, in exchange for participation in the European Court of Justice and making contributions to the EU budget. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed her support for the UK eventually rejoining the EU. In September 2023 Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, ruled out the possibility of the UK rejoining the EU under a Starmer-led Labour government.

Process

Potential enlargement of the European Union is governed by Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty. If the UK applied to rejoin the EU, it would need to apply and have its application terms supported unanimously by the EU member states. In January 2020, the political scientist Anthony Salamone wrote that member state support would seek "significant, stable and long-lasting majority public opinion in favour of rejoining", suggesting sustained 60% support would be a plausible minimum. New negotiated terms may also require the UK's participation in the Eurozone and Schengen Area, as well as offering fewer concessions than the UK received as a member. Any concessions sought when joining would need unanimous support from member states and a majority in the European Parliament.

Political positions

Some UK political parties have policy proposals for the United Kingdom to rejoin the European Union in the future, while others have ruled out supporting it.

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted about whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).

National polls

Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum.

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Specialist opinion polling

Conditioning Accession on Euro Adoption

During the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union, it did not seek to adopt the Euro and attained an opt-out as a part of the Maastricht Treaty negotiations.

WeThink, the public polling arm of Omnisis, began including a supplementary question as a part of its Brexit polling assessing how Euro adoption would influence voting intentions on a hypothetical referendum on re-joining the European Union.

Prior to January 2024, Opinium, as published by WeThink, asked the following two questions;

Would the requirement to adopt the Euro as currency change your decision? Would the requirement to adopt the Euro as currency change your decision to rejoin the EU if you would vote to rejoin? referendum on EU membership tomorrow?

The available responses were;

I would still want the UK to rejoin the EU if adopting the Euro was a requirement

I would not want the UK to rejoin the EU if adopting the Euro was a requirement

I would only want the UK to rejoin the EU if we were able to keep Sterling as our currency

Young voters

Starting in April 2023, Savanta – commissioned by Peston, ITV's flagship political discussion programme – conducts polls of young people aged 18 to 25 on a range of issues, including their views on the UK rejoining the European Union.

Holding a referendum

In January 2023, Savanta published a poll of 2,065 British adults, which included a question regarding support for a referendum on the UK rejoining the EU. A combined total of 65% were in favour of such a referendum now or at some point in the future and 24% were opposed to such a referendum.

Question: When do you think, if at all, there should next be a referendum on whether or not the UK should re-join or stay out of the European Union?

In the European Union

Fifth anniversary polling

In 2021, for the fifth anniversary of the UK's EU membership referendum, Euronews commissioned an opinion poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies of attitudes to the European Union and Brexit in the EU's four largest countries. Redfield & Wilton polled 1,500 people in each member-state between the 6th and 7th of June 2021. The poll included the following question about how responders would feel about the UK re-joining the EU:

Polling on a Franco-German four-tier EU Structure

Following reports in 2023 of a Franco-German proposal for a four-tiered EU structure, YouGov Eurotrack conducted polling in several EU Member States. This polling included attitudes towards further EU enlargement. People from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Sweden were asked;

Fieldwork was conducted between the 6th and 26th of October 2023.

See also

• Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)
• Accession of the United Kingdom to the European Communities
• Potential enlargement of the European Union
• United Kingdom membership of the European Union

References