The European Parliament election is set to take place in June 2024. This article lists national polls for the European Union (EU) election as well as EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates.

Polling aggregations

Seat projections

Europe Elects, Der Föderalist and Politico Europe have been presenting seat projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. All projections make their national-level data transparent, except Politico Europe, which only presents aggregate EU-level data.

Popular vote projections

Europe Elects has been presenting popular vote projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign.

Seats

361 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the European Parliament.

Popular vote

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

National opinion polling

Austria

Projected turnout:

According to the OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (May 7-8, 2024), a total of 66% of those surveyed said they are "certain" to vote. This would represent an increase of more than 6% compared to the 2019 election, which had 59.8% turnout. It would also be the highest turnout since the first EU parliament election in Austria in 1996, when turnout was 67.7%.

Other pollsters like the Lazarsfeld Society or Spectra are estimating turnout at between 52% to 63%.

Belgium

Dutch-speaking

French-speaking

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Italy

  Exit poll

Ireland

National polls

Dublin

Midlands–North-West

South

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

No opinion polls are expected to be done for the European Parliament election in Luxembourg. The results of recent elections are shown in the absence of that.

Malta

It is not uncommon for smaller parties to be grouped together or excluded in polls by Maltese media houses.

Netherlands

  Exit poll

  Exit poll

Poland

Portugal

  Exit poll

Romania

Slovenia

Slovakia

Spain

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a European Parliament election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a European Parliament election taking place.

Preferred candidate

The table below lists opinion polling on candidate preferences.

Sweden

Notes

References

Other for Spain