2024 United Kingdom local elections

The 2024 United Kingdom local elections are due to take place on 2 May 2024. Elections will take place for councils and mayors in England and police and crime commissioners in England and Wales. The 2024 Blackpool South by-election is due to be held concurrently.

The majority of these elections were last held in the 2021 local elections, delayed by a year from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background

Significance of these elections

When these elections were last held in 2021 the Conservative Party made gains, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party. Since then the Conservative Party has had several high-profile political scandals and crises and has seen a decrease in their popularity in opinion polling. This was reflected in the poor results for the Conservative Party at both the 2022 and 2023 local elections. As a result of the 2023 local elections, Labour became the party with most members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.

These are to be the second set of local elections held under the Elections Act 2022, a voter identification law that was controversial, meaning voters are required to show photo ID when attending a polling station. This also means that the mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections will use a first-past-the-post voting system rather than the previously used supplementary vote system.

These local elections are to be the last set of routine elections before the next general election. For this reason the results are likely to influence both the date the general election is scheduled for and the election strategies for each party.

Some Conservatives suggested framing the London Mayoral election as a de facto referendum on the ULEZ, which could impact parties' attitudes towards environmental policy.

In late 2023 Labour suggested persistently high interest rates were going to cause a surge in mortgage costs affecting 630,000 homeowners who would re-mortgage between then and the local elections in May. They described the situation as a "financial time-bomb" and implied this would influence the electorate in the elections.

Lord Hayward suggested that community activists and smaller parties may drain support away from the three main parties due to the directions of those parties and because the Liberal Democrat's "are no longer the obvious choice for voters disillusioned with the two main parties".

As the elections neared there were suggestions that Rishi Sunak's leadership would be challenged if the results went poorly for his party, particularly if the Conservatives lost either the West Midlands or Tees Valley mayoralties. Sunak quickly sought to insist to his own MPs that he would still be the Prime Minister after these elections, even if the results were poor for his party.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden insisted that this year's elections would be safe from cyber attacks whilst discussing Chinese state-linked hacking.

Predictions

In March 2024 The Observer reported that the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election, explaining that most of these seats were won at the peak of the "vaccine bounce". Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden also cited the "vaccine bounce" as a reason to expect these elections to be "much tougher" for his party than the last time they were contested.

In March 2024, Lewis Baston, a political analyst and author, posted that his analysis showed the Conservative Party was due to lose over 50% of their seats which are not changing boundaries. He found that of 613 seats being defended, they would lose 328 based on the swing seen in the 2023 local elections, but would gain eight elsewhere. However, after more work, by 1 April 2024 he said he thought the Conservatives wouldn't lose half their seats because one third of the seats up for election were not last fought in the 2021 local elections, but were actually fought in tougher elections in 2019, 2022, and 2023.

Analysts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings also said the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election if a similar result to 2023 was repeated. They said the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 300 and the Liberal Democrats and Green Party would both make gains.

Sky News' Sam Coates quoted Michael Thrasher's prediction that the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 350, but added that they consider Gloucester Council likely to switch directly from Conservative to Liberal Democrat-controlled.

Campaign

Both Labour and the Conservatives are defending just under 1,000 seats each, the Liberal Democrats about 400 and the Greens just over 100.

Liberal Democrats

On 20 March 2024 the Liberal Democrats launched their local election campaign in Harpenden, Hertfordshire where Ed Davey turned a giant hourglass which revealed the words "Time's running out Rishi!". Davey said he was confident of toppling the "Tory Blue Wall in Surrey".

Conservative

On 22 March 2024, Rishi Sunak launched the Conservative's local election campaign by appearing at a bus depot in Heanor, Derbyshire, alongside East Midlands mayoral candidate Ben Bradley. Due to "human error" 13 of the 35 Conservative candidates were invalidly nominated for Castle Point Borough Council seats, meaning they would not appear on the ballot.

Labour

On 28 March 2024, Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner launched Labour's campaign for the local elections at an event in Dudley. Starmer's speech mentioned the Levelling-up policy of the British government in the Black Country.

Green

A Green Party candidate in Bristol had a part of one of her fingers bitten off by a dog when posting a leaflet through a letterbox. A few days later, on 4 April 2024, the party officially launched its national campaign at an event in Bristol. Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsey gave speeches at the event with a focus on affordable housing.

England

Metropolitan boroughs

There are thirty-six metropolitan boroughs, which are single-tier local authorities. Thirty of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council holds its elections on a four-year cycle from 2016, so is also due to hold an election in 2024.

Due to boundary changes, some other councils which generally elect their councillors in thirds will elect all of their councillors in 2024.

Elections for all councillors

Elections for one third of councillors

By-elections or uncontested wards can cause the seats up for election to be above or below one third of the council.

Unitary authorities

There are sixty-two unitary authorities, which are single-tier local authorities. Fifteen of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Two unitary authorities hold all-out elections on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, and the recently-established Dorset Council held its first election in 2019, with its next election in 2024 and subsequent elections every four years from 2029.

Elections for all councillors

Elections for one third of councillors

District councils

There are 164 district councils, which are the lower tier local authorities in a two-tier system, with county councils above them. Forty-eight elect their councillors in thirds and seven elect their councillors in halves. Three district councils elect all their councillors on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, with North Hertfordshire changing from the thirds system for the first time. Due to boundary changes, some other councils which usually elect their councillors in thirds or halves will elect all of their councillors in 2024.

Elections for all councillors

Elections for half of councillors

Elections for one third of councillors

London Assembly

Mayoral and council leader elections

Mayor of London

The mayor of London is up for election to a four-year term.

Combined authority mayors

Nine combined authority mayors will be up for election.

Single-authority mayors

One single-authority mayor will be up for election.

Police and crime commissioner elections

All Police and Crime Commissioners (or Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner) in England are up for election.

Wales

Police and crime commissioner elections

All four police and crime commissioners in Wales are up for election, to represent the four police force areas of Dyfed-Powys, Gwent, North Wales and South Wales.

Notes

References